Monday, May 2, 2016

"Even If You're Yery Good - Humans Can Only Double Their Productivity at Best Every 10 Years"

The heading could possibly be the most significant political, economic, and social force the remainder of this century.  How we manage the limitations and constraints of human productivity compared to the productivity potential embedded in the Rise of the Machines will be critical.

From an excellent article in the Financial Times over the weekend by Ben Bland - The March of the Machines:

"Boston Consulting Group forecasts that the percentage of tasks handled by advanced robots will rise from 8 percent today to 26 percent by the end of the decade, driven by China, Germany, Japan, South Korea and the US, which together will account for 80 percent of robot purchases.  Sirkin at BCG says that the rapid expansion of automation could be compared to the difference between the "human learning curve" and Moore's Law, which posited that computing power could double every 18 months to two years.  "Even if you're very good, humans can only double their productivity at least every 10 years," he says.  In contrast, researchers can push robots to double their production every four years, he estimates.  "Compounded over time, that makes a big difference.""

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